Import demand and reorder analytics
An importer with long lead times built a forecast that accounts for transit and customs so reorders happen before stock runs out.
- Stockouts
- -31%
- illustrative
- Excess stock
- -18%
- working capital freed
- Lead time
- Real
- transit and customs
- Forecast
- Per SKU
- and lane
Illustrative scenario · example figures
The challenge
Reorder points assumed domestic lead times, but goods took weeks in transit and days at customs, so the business swung between stockouts and overstock tying up cash.
What we built
We built a demand forecast tied to real transit and clearance times, with reorder recommendations that factor in the full import lead time by supplier and lane.
- A demand forecast by product with seasonality and trend.
- Reorder points set from real transit and clearance times.
- Stockout and overstock risk flagged per SKU.
Outcomes
- Reorders are placed in time for the full import lead time.
- Stockouts and overstock both fall as the forecast reflects reality.
- Working capital tied up in excess stock is freed.
Where the data came from
Data is drawn from the systems the operation already runs on and delivered in the client’s own tenant.
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