Predictive credit risk and collections
A predictive score and a collections ladder built on Azure ML and Power BI, so the team acts on the accounts most likely to slip.
- Average 12m PD
- 6.8%
- probability predicted by the model
- 90+ delinquency
- 4.2%
- realized on balance
- Active portfolio
- $412M
- total outstanding balance
- Model KS
- 0.52
- monitored at each retraining
Illustrative figures · fictitious client · under NDA
The challenge
A lender managed a large portfolio with a rear-view mirror, seeing delinquency only after it happened, and could not prioritize collections by real risk.
What we built
We built the data foundation, trained a risk model on Azure Machine Learning, and served the score and a collections ladder through Power BI so the team works the highest-risk accounts first.
- A governed portfolio data model by cohort and aging bucket.
- A predictive risk score trained on Azure Machine Learning.
- A Power BI collections ladder that ranks accounts by risk.
Outcomes
- Collections effort aimed at the accounts most likely to slip.
- Delinquency seen ahead of time, not after.
- Portfolio risk visible by cohort and aging bucket.
The dashboard we delivered
Delinquency predicted vs realized
The model anticipates by three months what the old ladder only saw later
Balance at risk by portfolio
Click to open by cohort
Contracts in the slice
Score per contract, with the action the collections ladder triggers
Illustrative dashboard with the structure delivered on the project. Client names and figures are fictitious and under NDA.
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